US Economic Events Guide
This guide explains the most important U.S. economic events tracked in our Economic Calendar. Each entry describes what the indicator measures, who publishes it, how often it is released, and why it matters for financial markets.
Understanding these events helps you interpret market reactions and anticipate volatility around their release.
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- CPI — Consumer Price Index
- Core CPI
- PPI — Producer Price Index
- PCE Price Index
- Core PCE Price Index
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
- Unemployment Rate
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment
- JOLTS — Job Openings
- Initial Jobless Claims
- FOMC Statement
- Federal Funds Rate
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
- GDP — Gross Domestic Product
- Retail Sales
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Durable Goods Orders
- Consumer Confidence
Inflation
The CPI measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services purchased by households. It is the most widely watched inflation indicator in the United States.
Rising CPI signals inflation, which may push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. This impacts the dollar, bonds, and equities.
Core CPI is the same as CPI but excludes food and energy, which are more volatile. It is considered a cleaner measure of underlying inflation.
The Federal Reserve pays close attention to Core CPI when setting monetary policy.
The PPI measures the change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It tracks inflation at the wholesale level.
PPI often leads CPI, so it can give an early signal of upcoming consumer inflation.
The PCE Price Index measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, based on personal consumption data. It covers a broader basket than CPI.
The Fed monitors the PCE closely — it is considered a more accurate reflection of real consumer behavior than CPI.
The Core PCE Price Index measures inflation excluding food and energy. It is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
The Fed explicitly targets 2% Core PCE inflation. Any surprise here can move markets significantly.
Employment
The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy during the previous month, excluding farm workers.
It is one of the most market-moving releases. A strong NFP supports the dollar and equities; a weak NFP may push the Fed to cut rates.
The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.
A rising unemployment rate signals economic weakness and may lead to rate cuts; a falling rate supports tightening.
Measures the change in the average hourly pay of all non-farm employees. It is a key indicator of wage inflation.
Rising wages can feed into consumer inflation, which affects Fed policy decisions.
The ADP report measures the change in private-sector employment in the U.S., based on payroll data from ADP.
Released two days before NFP, it is often used as a preview of the official jobs report — though it doesn't always match.
JOLTS measures the number of job openings, hires, and separations in the U.S. labor market. It reflects labor demand and turnover.
High job openings indicate a tight labor market, which can fuel wage inflation and influence Fed policy.
Weekly measure of the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is the most timely indicator of labor market health.
A sudden rise in claims often signals weakening employment and can move markets, especially when it surprises consensus.
Fed & Monetary Policy
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the branch of the Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy. The FOMC Statement is the official communication released after each policy meeting.
It contains the Fed's view on the economy and future policy intentions. Markets react strongly to any changes in tone.
The interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It is the Fed's primary tool to control inflation and support employment.
Changes in the Federal Funds Rate affect all borrowing costs — mortgages, credit cards, corporate loans — and ripple through every financial market.
The detailed record of the FOMC meeting, published three weeks after the meeting. It provides deeper insight into the committee's reasoning and disagreements.
Markets analyze the Minutes to detect shifts in policy stance before the next meeting.
Growth
GDP is the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country during a specific period. It is the broadest measure of economic activity.
Strong GDP growth supports equities and the dollar; weak GDP may signal recession and push the Fed to ease policy.
Measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives around 70% of U.S. GDP.
Strong retail sales indicate a healthy consumer and support economic growth.
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is a survey-based indicator of the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Values above 50 indicate expansion; below 50 indicate contraction.
It is one of the earliest indicators of economic trends and often moves markets on release.
Measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for durable goods — items designed to last three years or more, such as machinery, vehicles, and computers.
It signals business investment trends and is a leading indicator of industrial activity.
A monthly survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the economy and their personal finances.
Confidence drives spending, and spending drives GDP. A falling index often precedes a slowdown in consumer demand.
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